Yomi Durojaye
The Nigerian Non-Oil Exporters has Signalled a Massive Growth Potential, Amidst Crippling Logistics and Energy Costs giving Nigerian Exporters hope in a growing foreign exchage opportunities in the sector.
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| Lead Consultant, 3T Impex Non-Oil Export Index Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo. |
This was disclosed today at the 2026 3T Non-Oil Export Index Report programme organised by 3T Impex Trade Firm in Lagos.
Speaking at the event, the Lead Consultant, Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo, said the 2026 Non-Oil Export Index Report, revealing a striking paradox at the heart of Nigeria’s international trade sector. While exporter confidence and global demand have reached record highs, severe structural bottlenecks specifically, despite a skyrocketing logistics and energy costs that are actively neutralizing these gains and pushing smaller exporters out of the market.
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| From L-R; The Admin Officer of the Institute of Export and International Trade; Victoria Orji, Lead Consultant, 3T Impex Trade Consulting; Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo, Human Resource Manager, 3T Impex Trade Consulting; Ms. Grace Adedayo and the Head of Trade Logistics and Operations; Mr. Caleb Afuwape during the virtual launching of the 3T Impex Non-Oil Export Index Report 2026 by the Lead Consultant, Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo. |
According to Dr. Bamidele Ayemibo, the comprehensive report synthesizes data from 87,824 export transactions between 2021 and 2025, alongside a detailed sentiment survey of 94 active non-oil exporters across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.
The findings present a stark 75-point chasm between market ambition and operational reality with high Confidence Amidst a Logistics Crisis
"According to the report, the Business Confidence Index stands at a strong 87.8 out of 100, with 75.5% of exporters reporting actual sales growth and 91.5% expecting global demand to improve. This optimism is further reflected in the Predictive Outlook Index, which scored an exceptional 92.8, as 83.0% of respondents plan to invest and expand their capacity.
However, "this optimism is heavily overshadowed by the Logistics Benchmark Index, which plummeted to a critical low of 12.8 out of 100—the weakest index in the entire study. A staggering 77.7% of exporters reported increased inland transport and port handling costs over the period.
"Nigeria's non-oil exporters are confident, market-facing, and growing," the report concludes. "But a Logistics Benchmark of 12.8 out of 100 is a structural emergency, not a policy inconvenience. When 77.7% of exporters face rising logistics costs while simultaneously recording the strongest sentiment scores (87.8 confidence, 92.8 outlook), the system is trapping its own best performers".
The Execution Trap: "Energy, Quality, and Port Concentration The report identifies operational hurdles, rather than market demand, as the primary constraints to scaling: Energy Costs: 51.1% of exporters cited the high cost of energy and processing as their absolute number one barrier. This forces many to avoid value-addition and revert to exporting raw commodities.
• Quality Standards: 28.7% identified quality and standardization rejections as their top constraint, highlighting the urgent need for better certification infrastructure to meet strict global requirements like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
On Port Concentration: The report warns of a worsening national risk, noting that 71.7% of all exports now exit through just two Lagos ports (Tincan Island and Apapa), with Tincan's share alone growing to 45.9% in 2025.
He further stressed that, there is a need for urgent Call for Intervention while the total export value grew by an impressive 93% over five years to reach $6.17 billion in 2025, the actual transaction count dropped from 18,280 in 2021 to 16,683 in 2025. This indicates that Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) are being systematically excluded from the formal export system due to prohibitive measures.
Key recommendations include diversifying export port infrastructure by activating Onne Port to relieve Lagos, resolving grid power reliability for export zones, expanding NEXIM export credit insurance, and creating logistics-linked pre-export financing to support struggling businesses.
Exporters are also advised to consolidate shipments and prioritize quality compliance. The Nigeria Non-Oil Export Index serves as a strategic tool for tracking exporter sentiment and performance, providing actionable insights to accelerate Nigeria’s export diversification agenda and unlock sustainable economic growth
